FAA seeking AI system to predict air traffic conflicts two hours ahead, with Palantir, Thales and startup competing

The Federal Aviation Administration is developing an artificial intelligence system called SMART that would allow air traffic controllers to predict and resolve flight conflicts up to two hours before they occur, a significant expansion from the current 15-minute planning window. Three companies are competing for the contract: data analytics firm Palantir Technologies, European aerospace and defense supplier Thales, and Boston-based startup Air Space Intelligence. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed the project and bidders on 17 April. SMART, which stands for Strategic Management of Airspace Routing Trajectories, uses high-fidelity 4D modeling to anticipate bottlenecks and schedule conflicts before aircraft leave the ground. The system would shift air traffic management from reactive to predictive. The initiative follows a collision of an Air Canada Express flight with a fire truck at LaGuardia Airport on 22 March, which exposed controller overwork and aging safety systems. The FAA has received $12.5 billion from Congress for air traffic control modernization and estimates it needs an additional $20 billion to complete the overhaul. As part of the broader modernization program, the agency is replacing 612 outdated radar systems and has hired nearly 1,200 new controllers in fiscal 2026 so far, roughly half its annual target. Palantir brings extensive government experience, with a $10 billion ceiling-value Army contract signed in July 2025 and government revenue that grew 70% year over year in Q4 2025. The company's revenue guidance for 2026 is approximately $7.2 billion, representing 61% growth. Thales has more than 85 years of supplying air traffic management systems to the FAA and Department of Defense. More than 99% of instrument landing systems at US airports use Thales equipment, giving the company an incumbent advantage. Air Space Intelligence's Flyways AI platform already manages over 40% of all US air traffic through partnerships with major airlines. The startup recently announced a partnership with Joby Aviation to integrate electric air taxis into the national airspace. The FAA has said the SMART system could be operational in some form later this year. The contract represents a critical test of whether AI can close the gap between what the US air traffic control system was designed to handle and the 45,000 flights it manages daily across increasingly complex airspace.