Microsoft Research tests site-specific space weather forecasts for US grid

Microsoft Research has tested a system that estimates space weather risk for 66,935 substations in the continental United States, with forecasts 30 to 60 minutes ahead of potential impact. It combines solar wind measurements and forecasts of geomagnetic activity with each location's geology and grid data to estimate where induced currents could pose a risk. In an evaluation covering 2020 through 2026, the system detected 76.5% of major events and 64.1% of extreme events. False alarms increased with storm severity. The work has not been validated with utilities or operational grid data, which the researchers say would be needed before grid operators could use it.