Nomura/Instinet raises TSMC price target with Buy rating; forecasts +37%/+30% USD revenue growth in 2026F/2027F, aggressive CoWoS capacity expansion to 2M units by 2027F, and 5-10% price hikes on N2/N3/N5 nodes

Nomura Instinet raised its price target on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. with a Buy rating, citing expectations for strong revenue growth and aggressive capacity expansion. Analyst Aaron Jeng said in a note published June 30 that TSMC is expected to deliver +37% revenue growth in 2026 and +30% growth in 2027 in U.S. dollar terms, driven by full fab loadings and price hikes beginning with wafer-outs in January 2027. Jeng said TSMC is likely targeting 2,000 thousand pieces of CoWoS capacity in 2027, above his prior estimate of up to 1,350 thousand pieces, by accelerating tooling at AP7 and AP8. The model assumes 1,800 thousand pieces of actual CoWoS output, with potential constraints from IC substrates in the wafer-on-substrate stage. Nomura Instinet kept its 2026 capex forecast unchanged but raised 2027 and 2028 estimates to $75 billion and $85 billion from $70 billion each, citing competition from Intel's EMIB-T and high return on investment in the AI cycle. Jeng forecast 5-10% price increases for N2, N3 and N5 nodes into 2027.