TrendForce forecasts laptop cost pressure and reduced production outside China

TrendForce projects that the share of global notebook production outside China will fall from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026 and potentially below 20% in 2027 as rising costs make overseas manufacturing less attractive. Its latest report forecasts a low-single-digit shipment decline in 2027. CPU, DRAM and SSD components accounted for approximately 68% of the bill of materials for mainstream notebooks with a $900 suggested retail price in the third quarter of 2026. As cheaper inventories run out, manufacturers face choices between higher prices, lower specifications and squeezed margins. TrendForce says passing higher costs to consumers could push the shipment decline into the high-single-digit range.